MARKET PILLAR · TOM BRADYData through Sep 20, 2026 · real data
Tom Brady Chrome Kaiju
2025 Topps Chrome Football · Kaiju #KAI-1 · SSP case hit
SPOTLIGHT SCORE
GRADE IT
Capped supply · steady, not rising
Five parts, added together. On every line, a higher number is better. Tap the i for what it means.
Easy to buy & sell
12/25
What it measures. How often this card changes hands. High = you can buy or sell one any week at a known price. Why this card got 12 of 25. 24 sales in 90 days across every grade and venue, about two a week, and 12 of them PSA 10s. Six listed on eBay right now. You can get in or out inside a month, at a known price.
Grading payoff
16/20
What it measures. How much a raw copy gains by being graded, after fees, and how likely a top grade is. High = grading a clean copy is clearly worth it. Why this card got 16 of 20. 55% of PSA submissions came back a 10, and a 10 sells for 2.9× raw. Points held back because a 9 ($8,540) barely beats raw ($7,000) after fees.
Scarcity
16/20
What it measures. How hard the card is to find and whether that will stay true. High = few exist and no more are coming. Low = plenty around, or supply still growing. Why this card got 16 of 20. One per case, 117 graded copies, 59 PSA 10s. Raw copies still surface every couple of weeks, so the graded count keeps growing slowly.
Price trend
7/15
What it measures. Which way prices have been moving. High = rising on real sales. Why this card got 7 of 15. Flat. PSA 10 has traded between $18,500 and $22,800 every month since May 2026, with no trend either way. The $23,300 opening print on Apr 21 remains the high.
Price vs similar cards
11/20
What it measures. Whether today's price looks cheap or expensive next to comparable cards. High = cheap for what it is. Why this card got 11 of 20. At the houses Brady's Kaiju ($20,600 to $22,800) is about 2× Mahomes' ($12,600 ALT) and 2.5× Josh Allen's ($9,000). A retired player at twice the active MVPs is a GOAT premium, already paid.
The first Topps Chrome Football in a decade shipped in April 2026 with Brady as the face of its case hit. A PSA 10 printed $23,300 on day one, settled near $20,050 by May and has not moved since. Half the 10s sell at the auction houses, for a little more. The grader gives it a 10 more than half the time, so a raw copy at $7,000 is worth grading.
PSA 10 90-Day Median
$20,050
•eBay, 6 sales
•auction houses $21,256, 6 sales
Since May
−2%
$20,400 in May 2026 to $20,050 now
Vs Opening Print
−14%
$23,300 on Apr 21, 2026
Total Graded Pop
117
•PSA 107
•BGS 9
•CGC 1
PSA Gem Rate
55.1%
59 tens
90-Day Volume All Grades
$328K
•24 sales
•eBay, ALT, Goldin, Fanatics
The spine of the report
The Grade Ladder
Every grade this card trades at, most expensive at the top. The number between two rungs is what it costs to step up.
PSA 10
SELLS MOST DAYS
TYPICAL PRICE · LAST 90 DAYS
$20,050
$21,256 at auction houses
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
1 a week
12 sales in 90 days · 75% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
59
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$11,510
2.3×
to step up from a PSA 9 to a PSA 10
PSA 9
A FEW A MONTH
TYPICAL PRICE · LAST 90 DAYS
$8,540
Goldin $8,540 · Fanatics $7,800 · eBay $9,000
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 1 a month
3 sales in 90 days · price is a guide · 8% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
35
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$1,540
1.22×
is all a PSA 9 adds over a raw copy
RAW
A FEW A MONTH
TYPICAL PRICE · LAST 90 DAYS
$7,000
eBay only, none at auction
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
1 or 2 a month
5 sales in 90 days · 8% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
—
ungraded, nobody counts them
TOO FEW SALES TO PRICEPSA 8 · 7 exist · $5,600 (Jul 11, 2026) and $5,700 (Aug 26, 2026) on eBay, $6,841 at ALT (May 21, 2026)BGS 9 · 5 exist · $8,100 (Aug 16, 2026, Fanatics Weekly)CGC 10 · 1 exists · $8,000 (Jul 12, 2026)PSA 7 and below · 6 exist · no sales
PSA 10 ÷ PSA 9
2.3×
Josh Allen Optic Downtown: 2.1×
PSA 10 ÷ Raw
2.9×
PSA 9 ÷ Raw
1.22×
A 9 ($8,540) is worth about $1,540 more than raw ($7,000)
What the auction houses change.Half of this card's PSA 10 sales happen at ALT, Goldin and Fanatics Weekly: 6 of 12 in the last 90 days. Their middle price is $21,256 against $20,050 on eBay, about 6% more, and the two highest prints of the summer were both house sales ($22,800 Fanatics Weekly, Sep 6, 2026; $21,619 ALT, Aug 13, 2026). If you own a 10, consign it. If you are buying a 10, eBay is the cheaper door. PSA 9s split evenly and price the same everywhere.
Interactive
Grade It or Skip It
Our numbers are filled in. Change any of them to match your card and your costs.
YOUR CARD
$
YOUR ODDS
Chance of an 8 or lower (what is left)
All PSA copies so far: 55% came back a 10. We start at 45% because the cleanest copies were graded first.
WHAT IT SELLS FOR
$
$
$
eBay prices are the last 90 days. Auction-house prices are the same window at ALT, Goldin and Fanatics Weekly.
FEES
%
$
$
$
PSA bills by declared value. A raw copy declared at $7,000 is already a higher tier ($150 here); a 10 worth $20,000 triggers a further upcharge. Edit both to your tier.
IF YOU GRADE IT
RESULTCHANCEYOU KEEPVS SELLING RAW
PSA 10
PSA 9
8 or lower
SELL IT RAW TODAY
after the selling fee, no risk
GRADE IT, ON AVERAGE
after every fee, across all three results
GRADING ADDS
Chance of a 10 you need to break even
6-month arc
Price History
Released Apr 21, 2026. The price guide's April spike is an artifact of one $23,300 sale blended with asks; the white dots are our own monthly middle sale. Flat since May.
PSA 10PSA 10 monthly middle sale, our dataPSA 9Raw
2026
EBAY · SALES
MoM
AUCTION HOUSES
GAP
Apr
$23,300 · 1
—
— · 0
—
May
$21,075 · 4
−10%
— · 0
—
Jun
$18,500 · 2
−12%
$17,400 · 1
−6%
Jul
$20,100 · 3
+9%
$20,510 · 2
+2%
Aug
$22,000 · 1
+9%
$21,315 · 2
−3%
Sep*
$19,750 · 1
−10%
$21,700 · 2
+10%
PSA 10 middle sale price and number of sales, Card Ladder, every venue. *September through the 20th. The houses have been at or above eBay in every month.
Census
The Grading Picture
PSA GRADE DISTRIBUTION
10
55.1%
9
32.7%
8
6.5%
≤7
5.6%
107 graded by PSA. 88% came back a 9 or a 10.
BY GRADER
PSA
107
59 tens · 55.1%
BGS
9
1 at 9.5 · 5 at 9 · 3 at 8.5
CGC
1
one 10
SGC
0
none graded
A PSA card: 91% of all graded copies. Beckett has been hard on it: one 9.5 in nine tries.
SUPPLY: CAPPED, STILL FILLING
One per case and the print run is done, but raw copies still surface every couple of weeks and 55% of them gem, so the PSA 10 count will keep rising for a while. Estimated value of all slabbed copies at today's prices: about $1.6M.
New PSA 10s per month: tracking started Sep 2026.
Structure
Where the Money Is
$328K changed hands across 24 sales in the last 90 days.
SHARE OF ALL DOLLARS, BY GRADE
75%
8%
8%
8%
75%of dollars · PSA 10
8%of dollars · PSA 9
8%of dollars · Raw
8%of dollars · Everything else
EBAY
$177K
54% of the money · every grade, and the only place raw sells
AUCTION HOUSES
$151K
46% of the money · PSA 10s and 9s
PSA 10 SALES SINCE RELEASE, BY VENUE
12eBay3Fanatics Weekly2ALT2Goldin0Heritage
THE MOOD
The cheapest PSA 10 listed is $25,000. The typical sale is $20,050. The cheapest raw copy listed is $15,430, more than double what raw sells for. Sellers are asking 20% over the market and waiting. Buyers get filled at auction.
The comps
Same Insert, Other Kaiju
2025 TOPPS CHROME KAIJU · PSA 10 · HOUSES
PRICE
VENUE · DATE
Tom Brady #KAI-1
$22,800
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 6, 2026
Tom Brady #KAI-1
$20,600
ALT · Sep 10, 2026
Patrick Mahomes
$12,600
ALT · Aug 20, 2026
Caleb Williams
$10,200
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 13, 2026
Josh Allen
$9,000
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 6, 2026
Patrick Mahomes
$8,400
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 13, 2026
Jaxson Dart (rookie)
$6,388
ALT · Sep 4, 2026
Cam Ward (rookie)
$4,800
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 13, 2026
Joe Burrow
$4,634
ALT · Sep 17, 2026
Auction-house sales, newest first. Brady is the top of the insert by a wide margin: roughly twice Mahomes and more than double every active quarterback. The Kaiju premium is a Brady premium.
The tape
Every sale on record
SHOWING THE 10 MOST RECENT OF 46 SALES
All venues, all grades, Apr 21 to Sep 20, 2026, $1,000 and up. Parallels excluded (Ultra Violet, Superfractor 1/1 at $350,000 Fanatics Premier).
DATE
GRADE
PRICE
VENUE
Sep 17, 2026
PSA 10
$19,750
eBay
Sep 10, 2026
PSA 10
$20,600
ALT
Sep 8, 2026
RAW
$7,800
eBay
Sep 6, 2026
PSA 10
$22,800
Fanatics Weekly
Aug 31, 2026
RAW
$7,000
eBay
Aug 26, 2026
PSA 8
$5,700
eBay
Aug 25, 2026
PSA 9
$9,000
eBay
Aug 19, 2026
RAW
$3,000
eBay
Aug 19, 2026
PSA 10
$22,000
eBay
Aug 17, 2026
RAW
$4,000
eBay
Aug 16, 2026
BGS 9
$8,100
Fanatics Weekly
Aug 15, 2026
PSA 10
$21,011
Goldin
Aug 13, 2026
PSA 10
$21,619
ALT
Jul 30, 2026
PSA 10
$21,500
Fanatics Weekly
Jul 25, 2026
PSA 10
$20,000
eBay
Jul 19, 2026
PSA 9
$7,800
Fanatics Weekly
Jul 12, 2026
PSA 9
$8,540
Goldin
Jul 12, 2026
CGC 10
$8,000
eBay
Jul 12, 2026
PSA 10
$19,520
Goldin
Jul 11, 2026
PSA 8
$5,600
eBay
Jul 8, 2026
PSA 10
$20,250
eBay
Jul 6, 2026
PSA 10
$20,100
eBay
Jul 4, 2026
RAW
$6,000
eBay
Jun 22, 2026
PSA 10
$18,500
eBay
Jun 19, 2026
PSA 10
$17,400
Fanatics Weekly
Jun 3, 2026
RAW
$5,500
eBay
Jun 3, 2026
PSA 10
$18,500
eBay
Jun 1, 2026
RAW
$7,300
eBay
May 24, 2026
PSA 9
$8,700
Fanatics Weekly
May 22, 2026
BGS 9
$8,078
eBay
May 21, 2026
PSA 8
$6,841
ALT
May 19, 2026
PSA 10
$19,000
eBay
May 12, 2026
RAW
$7,800
eBay
May 10, 2026
PSA 10
$22,000
eBay
May 9, 2026
PSA 10
$20,400
eBay
May 8, 2026
PSA 10
$21,750
eBay
May 7, 2026
RAW
$7,300
eBay
May 7, 2026
RAW
$6,822
eBay
May 3, 2026
RAW
$10,100
eBay
Apr 28, 2026
RAW
$8,700
eBay
Apr 27, 2026
RAW
$8,700
eBay
Apr 27, 2026
RAW
$8,599
eBay
Apr 27, 2026
RAW
$10,375
eBay
Apr 22, 2026
RAW
$9,288
eBay
Apr 22, 2026
RAW
$14,700
eBay
Apr 21, 2026
PSA 10
$23,300
eBay
Where to buy
The Buy Ladder
PSA 10
STEAL
under $18,500
Below every PSA 10 sale of the last 90 days. Lowest print was $18,500 on eBay (Jun 22, 2026)
TARGET
$18,500 – $20,000
Bottom of the 90-day range. eBay's own middle price is $20,050
FAIR
$20,000 – $21,500
Up to the auction-house middle price of $21,256
STRETCHED
$21,500 – $23,300
Only the two Fanatics Weekly and ALT highs live here. The cheapest listing is $25,000
WALK AWAY
over $23,300
Above the opening-day print. Nobody has paid it since Apr 21, 2026
RAW
Targetunder $6,500
Fair$6,500 – $7,800
Walk awayover $9,000
The cheapest raw listing is $15,430. Raw has sold between $5,500 and $7,800 since June. Never pay the listing; wait for the auction.
PSA 9
Targetunder $8,000
Fair$8,000 – $9,000
Walk awayover $10,000
Three sales in 90 days, $7,800 to $9,000. The cheapest listing is $11,000. A 9 at $9,000 is only $2,000 more than raw, so a 9 is the grade to sell, not to buy.
Every angle
The Case For and Against
FOR
The face of the first Topps Chrome Football in ten years, a one-per-case pull, and 117 graded copies in the world
Stable: every PSA 10 since May has sold between $18,500 and $22,800, on eBay and at three auction houses. This is a level, not a spike
Grading works: 55% gem rate, a 10 worth 2.9× raw, and half the 10s find a higher price at the houses
Brady is the safest name in football cards. No games left to lose, no season to go wrong
AGAINST
Flat since May. A card that does not move gives you no reason to buy today rather than next month
A PSA 9 is a dead grade: $8,540 against $7,000 raw. If your copy comes back a 9, you paid the grading fee for nothing
Priced at 2× Mahomes and 2.5× Allen inside the same insert. The GOAT premium is already in the price; the active quarterbacks have the upside
Case hit or not, it is a 2025 Topps Chrome insert. Topps will make a 2026 Kaiju, and a 2027, each with a Brady
THE VERDICT
Holding a raw copy? Grade it. Better than half come back a 10, and a 10 sells for $20,050 against $7,000 raw. Sell the 10 at ALT or Fanatics Weekly, where it fetches $21,256. Buying a 10? Pay $18,500 to $20,000 on eBay and ignore the $25,000 listings; this card has not moved in four months and there is no reason to chase. Buying a 9? Don't. It costs $8,540 and raw costs $7,000; buy raw and grade it yourself.
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