MARKET PILLAR · STEPHEN CURRYData through Sep 20, 2026 · real data
Curry Prizm Black Manga
2024-25 Panini Prizm Black · Manga #2 · SSP
SPOTLIGHT SCORE
GRADE IT
Capped supply · thin · off its high
Five parts, added together. On every line, a higher number is better. Tap the i for what it means.
Easy to buy & sell
10/25
What it measures. How often this card changes hands. High = you can buy or sell one any week at a known price. Why this card got 10 of 25. 35 sales in nine months, 31 of them PSA 10s, but zero in the last five weeks and zero listed on eBay. When one comes up it sells, at a known price, but you cannot buy one today.
Grading payoff
17/20
What it measures. How much a raw copy gains by being graded, after fees, and how likely a top grade is. High = grading a clean copy is clearly worth it. Why this card got 17 of 20. 90% of PSA submissions came back a 10, the best gem rate of any pillar. Raw sells near $9,000 and a 10 for $31,746. Even the one PSA 9 sale ($21,811) beat raw by double. Grade anything raw.
Scarcity
17/20
What it measures. How hard the card is to find and whether that will stay true. High = few exist and no more are coming. Low = plenty around, or supply still growing. Why this card got 17 of 20. 53 graded copies from a 2024-25 product that is done printing, and raw copies have nearly stopped appearing (two sales since June). Not a one-of-one, but close to fully slabbed.
Price trend
8/15
What it measures. Which way prices have been moving. High = rising on real sales. Why this card got 8 of 15. Down, then up. $45,000 to $48,000 in Dec and Jan, about $30,000 from March through July, then $39,000 and $40,800 on Aug 15 and 16, 2026. Two sales do not make a trend, and none have followed.
Price vs similar cards
11/20
What it measures. Whether today's price looks cheap or expensive next to comparable cards. High = cheap for what it is. Why this card got 11 of 20. The base Prizm Manga #4 in PSA 10 sells for $9,150; the Black is 3.5× it. Next to LeBron's All Kings ($17,750) and Wembanyama's Prizm Silver ($3,050), it is priced as a top-shelf modern card. Fair, not cheap.
Prizm Black's Manga is the short print collectors chased for two years, and the Curry is the one they wanted. A PSA 10 sold for $48,000 at ALT on Jan 1, 2026, slid to about $30,000 by spring, and then printed $39,000 and $40,800 on back-to-back days in August. Nothing has sold since, and nothing is listed. 53 graded copies, 44 of them PSA 10s, and a raw copy has not surfaced in seven weeks.
PSA 10 90-Day Median
$31,746
•8 sales
•eBay $34,500
•auction houses $31,692
Last Two Sales
$39,000 · $40,800
•eBay Aug 15 and Fanatics Weekly Aug 16, 2026
•none since
Vs January High
−34%
$48,000 at ALT on Jan 1, 2026
Total Graded Pop
53
•PSA 49
•BGS 4
•no SGC or CGC
PSA Gem Rate
89.8%
•44 tens
•3 nines
90-Day Volume All Grades
$293K
•10 sales
•eBay, ALT, Fanatics Weekly
The spine of the report
The Grade Ladder
Every grade this card trades at, most expensive at the top. Priced on the last 90 days because nothing has sold in the last 30.
PSA 10
A FEW A MONTH
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, LAST 90 DAYS
$31,746
eBay $34,500 · houses $31,692 · last two $39,000, $40,800
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 3 a month, until Aug 16
8 sales in 90 days · 0 in the last 30 · 91% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
44
graded copies at this rung
TOO FEW SALES TO PRICEPSA 9 · 3 exist · one sale, $21,811 (Jan 29, 2026, ALT)BGS 9.5 · 3 exist · one sale, $19,800 (Jul 2, 2026, ALT)RAW · $11,534 (Jun 4, 2026) and $6,499 (Aug 1, 2026), both eBay · treat as $9,000 until the next onePSA 8.5 and below · 2 exist · no sales
PSA 10 ÷ Raw
3.5×
on two raw sales; the real number is anyone's guess
PSA 10 ÷ PSA 9
1.5×
one PSA 9 sale, Jan 2026
Black ÷ Base Manga (PSA 10)
3.5×
Base Prizm Manga #4 PSA 10: $9,150, 6 sales since Dec
Black PSA 10 ÷ Base PSA 9
7.8×
Base #4 PSA 9: $4,050
What the auction houses change.ALT is this card's home. 19 of the 31 PSA 10 sales since December were at the houses, 12 of them ALT, and ALT set both the January high ($48,000) and the summer floor ($28,495, May 28, 2026). In the last 90 days the houses' middle price is $31,692 against $34,500 on eBay; the August bounce came from one eBay sale and one Fanatics Weekly sale a day apart. If you own a 10, ALT and Fanatics Weekly are where the last dozen buyers came from. If you are buying, there is nothing listed on eBay, so the houses are the only door.
Interactive
Grade It or Skip It
Our numbers are filled in. Change any of them to match your card and your costs.
YOUR CARD
$
YOUR ODDS
Chance of an 8 or lower (what is left)
All PSA copies so far: 90% came back a 10. We start at 70% because a raw copy surfacing now has been passed over.
WHAT IT SELLS FOR
$
$
$
PSA 10 is the 90-day middle price across every venue. PSA 9 is the one sale on record. Raw is an estimate from two sales.
FEES
%
$
$
$
PSA prices grading by declared value. A raw copy declared at $9,000 is a higher tier ($150 here), and a 10 worth $30,000 triggers a further upcharge. Edit both.
IF YOU GRADE IT
RESULTCHANCEYOU KEEPVS SELLING RAW
PSA 10
PSA 9
8 or lower
SELL IT RAW TODAY
after the selling fee, no risk
GRADE IT, ON AVERAGE
after every fee, across all three results
GRADING ADDS
Chance of a 10 you need to break even
11-month arc
Price History
The price guide (lines) barely moves because the card sells a few times a month; the white dots are our own monthly middle sale and tell the real story: a slide from $45,000 to $29,000, then a jump in August.
PSA 10PSA 10 monthly middle sale, our dataPSA 9Raw
2026
EBAY · SALES
MoM
AUCTION HOUSES
GAP
Jan
$37,500 · 1
—
$42,000 · 3
+12%
Feb
— · 0
—
$34,800 · 3
—
Mar
$30,000 · 3
−20%
$29,429 · 2
−2%
Apr
$25,516 · 3
−15%
$26,400 · 1
+3%
May
$28,252 · 2
+11%
$28,888 · 4
+2%
Jun
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Jul
$31,875 · 2
+13%
$31,146 · 4
−2%
Aug
$39,000 · 1
+22%
$40,800 · 1
+5%
Sep*
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
PSA 10 middle sale price and number of sales, Card Ladder plus Terapeak, every venue. *September through the 20th: no sales. The houses ran under eBay in the spring and above it in July.
Census
The Grading Picture
PSA GRADE DISTRIBUTION
10
89.8%
9
6.1%
8.5
2.0%
≤7
2.0%
49 graded by PSA. 44 of them, 90%, are 10s. Almost every copy that has been graded is a 10.
BY GRADER
PSA
49
44 tens · 89.8%
BGS
4
3 at 9.5 · 1 at 8.5
SGC
0
none graded
CGC
0
none graded
A PSA card: 92% of all graded copies. The three BGS 9.5s are the only non-PSA slabs that matter, and one sold for $19,800.
SUPPLY: CAPPED, NEARLY DONE
Prizm Black 2024-25 is out of print, and raw copies of the Manga have almost stopped trading: two sales since June, none listed. With a 90% gem rate, whatever raw is left will become PSA 10s, but there is not much left. Estimated value of all slabbed copies at today's prices: about $1.55M.
New PSA 10s per month: tracking started Sep 2026.
Structure
Where the Money Is
$293K changed hands across 10 sales in the last 90 days.
SHARE OF ALL DOLLARS, BY GRADE
91%
91%of dollars · PSA 10
2%of dollars · Raw
7%of dollars · BGS 9.5
EBAY
$109K
37% of the money · PSA 10s and both raw sales
AUCTION HOUSES
$184K
63% of the money · ALT and Fanatics Weekly
PSA 10 SALES SINCE DEC 2025, BY VENUE
12eBay12ALT5Fanatics Weekly2Goldin0Heritage
THE MOOD
Nothing is listed on eBay. Not a PSA 10, not a raw copy, not a 9. The last sale was $40,800 on Aug 16, 2026. Every owner is holding after the August prints. The next auction sets the price.
The comps
Black vs Base Manga
2024-25 PRIZM MANGA · STEPHEN CURRY
PRICE
SALES SINCE DEC 2025
Black Manga #2 · PSA 10
$31,746
31 sales · last $40,800
Black Manga #2 · PSA 9
$21,811
1 sale · ALT, Jan 29, 2026
Black Manga #2 · BGS 9.5
$19,800
1 sale · ALT, Jul 2, 2026
Base Manga #4 · PSA 10
$9,150
6 sales
Base Manga #4 · BGS 9.5
$7,320 · $7,793
2 sales
Base Manga #4 · PSA 9
$4,050
5 sales
The base Prizm Manga #4 is the same artwork from regular Prizm, with a 33% gem rate against the Black's 90%. Collectors pay 3.5× for the Black label and the tiny print run. The base card is the liquid way to own the art; the Black is the grail.
The tape
Every sale on record
SHOWING THE 10 MOST RECENT OF 35 SALES
All venues, all grades, Dec 20, 2025 to Sep 20, 2026, $3,000 and up. One $13,099 'PSA 10' eBay row excluded as a mislabel.
DATE
GRADE
PRICE
VENUE
Aug 16, 2026
PSA 10
$40,800
Fanatics Weekly
Aug 15, 2026
PSA 10
$39,000
eBay
Aug 1, 2026
RAW
$6,499
eBay
Jul 30, 2026
PSA 10
$30,600
ALT
Jul 23, 2026
PSA 10
$31,692
ALT
Jul 20, 2026
PSA 10
$34,500
eBay
Jul 14, 2026
PSA 10
$29,250
eBay
Jul 9, 2026
PSA 10
$29,266
ALT
Jul 2, 2026
PSA 10
$31,800
ALT
Jul 2, 2026
BGS 9.5
$19,800
ALT
Jun 4, 2026
RAW
$11,534
eBay
May 28, 2026
PSA 10
$28,495
ALT
May 22, 2026
PSA 10
$27,900
Fanatics Weekly
May 21, 2026
PSA 10
$29,400
ALT
May 19, 2026
PSA 10
$27,500
eBay
May 13, 2026
PSA 10
$29,005
eBay
May 7, 2026
PSA 10
$29,280
Goldin
Apr 19, 2026
PSA 10
$30,100
eBay
Apr 17, 2026
PSA 10
$26,400
Fanatics Weekly
Apr 13, 2026
PSA 10
$25,516
eBay
Apr 7, 2026
PSA 10
$25,500
eBay
Mar 31, 2026
PSA 10
$30,000
eBay
Mar 25, 2026
PSA 10
$30,000
eBay
Mar 19, 2026
PSA 10
$28,858
ALT
Mar 13, 2026
PSA 10
$30,000
Fanatics Weekly
Mar 3, 2026
PSA 10
$30,000
eBay
Feb 20, 2026
PSA 10
$36,000
Fanatics Weekly
Feb 19, 2026
PSA 10
$34,800
ALT
Feb 12, 2026
PSA 10
$31,836
ALT
Jan 29, 2026
PSA 9
$21,811
ALT
Jan 22, 2026
PSA 10
$42,000
ALT
Jan 15, 2026
PSA 10
$37,500
eBay
Jan 3, 2026
PSA 10
$36,600
Goldin
Jan 1, 2026
PSA 10
$48,000
ALT
Dec 25, 2025
PSA 10
$45,000
ALT
Where to buy
The Buy Ladder
PSA 10
STEAL
under $28,000
Below every PSA 10 sale of 2026 except one (ALT, $28,495, May 28)
TARGET
$28,000 – $32,000
Where the spring and summer cleared: 12 of the last 18 sales landed here
FAIR
$32,000 – $37,000
Between the summer level and the August prints. February sold here twice
STRETCHED
$37,000 – $42,000
The August bounce ($39,000, $40,800) and the January sales. Paying it assumes August was a re-rating, not two buyers
WALK AWAY
over $42,000
Only the two January ALT sales ($45,000, $48,000) ever cleared here
RAW
Targetunder $8,000
Fair$8,000 – $11,000
Walk awayover $14,000
Two raw sales all year: $11,534 and $6,499. With a 90% gem rate, a raw copy under $11,000 is a PSA 10 at a 65% discount. Buy every one you see.
PSA 9 / BGS 9.5
Targetunder $18,000
Fair$18,000 – $22,000
Walk awayover $25,000
One PSA 9 ($21,811) and one BGS 9.5 ($19,800) have sold. A 9 is more than double raw, so if you get one, sell it and buy raw to grade.
Every angle
The Case For and Against
FOR
The Curry card of the Prizm Black era: 53 graded copies, 44 PSA 10s, product out of print, raw supply nearly gone
A 90% gem rate means the slab is the card. Any raw copy you find is a PSA 10 with extra steps
The August prints ($39,000 and $40,800) came from two different venues on consecutive days. That is two independent buyers saying the spring price was too low
ALT has sold this card a dozen times. When you want out, there is a house that knows the buyers
AGAINST
Zero sales in five weeks and zero listings. The August price is unconfirmed until someone pays it again
It lost 40% from January to May. A card that can do that once can do it again, and Curry is 38 with no season narrative behind him
At 3.5× the base Manga you are paying for a label and a print run, not different artwork
Thin all the way down: one PSA 9 sale, one BGS 9.5 sale, two raw sales in nine months. Every rung below the 10 is a guess
THE VERDICT
Holding a raw copy? Grade it. Nine in ten come back a 10 and a 10 sells for $31,746 against roughly $9,000 raw; this is the surest grading call in the series. Holding a 10? Consign it to ALT or Fanatics Weekly and let the August buyers show whether $40,000 is real; there is no competing listing. Buying? There is nothing to buy today. When one comes up, $28,000 to $32,000 is where a dozen sales cleared this year; above $37,000 you are betting that two August sales were a new level. Patient money wins on this card.
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