MARKET PILLAR · RAYQUAZAData through Sep 20, 2026 · real data
Rayquaza VMAX Evolving Skies
2021 Pokémon Sword & Shield · Evolving Skies · Secret Rare alternate art #218/203
SPOTLIGHT SCORE
GRADE IT
Modern chase · 68% gem rate · off the June peak
Five parts, added together. On every line, a higher number is better. Tap the i for what it means.
Easy to buy & sell
25/25
What it measures. How often this card changes hands. High = you can buy or sell one any week at a known price. Why this card got 25 of 25. 204 sales over $300 in 30 days, 49 in the eleven days we priced: a PSA 10 three times a day, a raw copy daily, a 9 every other day. eBay, ALT, Goldin and Fanatics all clear it. Nothing to wait for.
Grading payoff
15/20
What it measures. How much a raw copy gains by being graded, after fees, and how likely a top grade is. High = grading a clean copy is clearly worth it. Why this card got 15 of 20. A 10 is worth 2.4× raw and 68% of submissions get there. The miss is a 9 at $1,108, still $158 over raw before the $75 fee. Textured alt-art foil hides scratches under a light; the copies that fail, fail on the surface.
Scarcity
3/20
What it measures. How hard the card is to find and whether that will stay true. High = few exist and no more are coming. Low = plenty around, or supply still growing. Why this card got 3 of 20. 26,659 graded copies, 15,120 PSA 10s, and raw copies sell every day from a set that was printed for two years. The only scarce version is the Beckett Black Label (39 exist), and that is a grading outcome, not a card. Not scarce.
Price trend
9/15
What it measures. Which way prices have been moving. High = rising on real sales. Why this card got 9 of 15. PSA 10: $1,000 in April 2025, $1,700 in January, $2,959 in June, $2,311 now. Up 37% on the year, down 22% from the peak, and lower every month since June. The 9 and the raw did the same, a quarter behind.
Price vs similar cards
10/20
What it measures. Whether today's price looks cheap or expensive next to comparable cards. High = cheap for what it is. Why this card got 10 of 20. At Fanatics the Rayquaza 10 ($2,400) sells for 60% of the Umbreon VMAX alt art 10 ($4,020) and 4× the Sylveon ($660), Leafeon ($492 to $576) and Glaceon ($492 to $552). Second card in the most-collected modern set, priced as the clear second. Fair, not cheap.
The modern Pokémon chase that everyone graded. 26,659 slabs, 15,120 of them PSA 10s, and it still sells seven times a day. A PSA 10 is $2,287, up from $1,000 a year and a half ago and down from a $3,000 peak in June. A PSA 9 is $1,108, a raw copy $950, and the grader says yes 68% of the time. At the very top a Beckett Black Label sells for $33,000, fourteen PSA 10s in one slab.
PSA 10 Median, Sep 10-21
$2,287
•28 sales
•eBay $2,300
•Fanatics $1,920
•houses since Aug 20 $2,400
PSA 10 Move on the Year
+27%
•$1,825 in Sep 2025 to $2,311 now
•June peak $2,959
PSA 9 Median
$1,108
•4 sales
•raw $950
•CGC 10 $1,599
Total Graded Pop
26,659
•PSA 22,265
•CGC 2,158
•BGS 2,006
•SGC 230
PSA Gem Rate
67.9%
•15,120 tens
•5,009 nines
Sales in 30 Days Card Ladder
204
•$300 and up
•about 7 a day
The spine of the report
The Grade Ladder
Every grade this card trades at, most expensive at the top. Priced on eleven days (Sep 10-21, 2026) because it sells seven times a day.
BGS 10 BLACK LABEL
RARELY SELLS
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, SEP 10-21
$33,300
$33,300 (Aug 28) and $32,400 (Sep 6, 2026), Fanatics Weekly
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 1 a month
2 sales since Aug 20 · 39 exist
HOW MANY EXIST
39
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$29,250
8.2×
from a BGS 10 Pristine to a Black Label. Four perfect subgrades, eight times the price
BGS 10 PRISTINE
RARELY SELLS
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, SEP 10-21
$4,050
$4,050 (eBay, Sep 20, 2026)
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
A few a month
1 sale in 11 days ·
HOW MANY EXIST
308
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$1,763
1.8×
from a PSA 10 to a BGS 10 Pristine
PSA 10
SELLS DAILY
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, SEP 10-21
$2,287
eBay $2,300 · Fanatics $1,920 · ALT and Goldin $2,281 to $2,580 since Aug 20
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 3 a day
28 sales in 11 days · 71% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
15,120
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$688
1.4×
from a CGC 10 to a PSA 10. Same number, 1.4× the price
CGC 10
A FEW A MONTH
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, SEP 10-21
$1,599
$1,100 to $1,905 · eBay; $1,140 at Fanatics Sep 6
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 1 a week
3 sales in 11 days ·
HOW MANY EXIST
892
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$492
1.44×
from a PSA 9 to a CGC 10
PSA 9
SELLS MOST DAYS
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, SEP 10-21
$1,108
$900 to $1,200 · eBay; ALT $1,016 Aug 20
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 1 every 2 days
4 sales in 11 days · 5% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
5,009
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$158
1.17×
from raw to a PSA 9, before the $75 fee
RAW
SELLS DAILY
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, SEP 10-21
$950
$485 to $1,205 · eBay
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 1 a day
11 sales in 11 days · 12% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
—
ungraded, nobody counts them
TOO FEW SALES TO PRICEBGS 9.5 · 1,225 exist · guide $1,625 · listed at $2,200 to $2,700, none sold in the windowCGC 9.5 · $1,225 (eBay, Sep 16, 2026): PSA 9 moneyCGC 9 · $870 (Fanatics, Sep 20, 2026): under rawCGC 8 / 8.5 · $900 and $990 (Fanatics, Aug 30 and Sep 13, 2026): raw money in a slabPSA 8 and below · 1,974 exist · guide $875 for an 8, $860 for a 7
PSA 10 ÷ PSA 9
2.1×
15,120 tens against 5,009 nines
PSA 10 ÷ Raw
2.4×
with a 68% chance of getting there
PSA 10 ÷ CGC 10
1.4×
same grade number, different slab
Rayquaza ÷ Umbreon (alt Art PSA 10)
0.60×
Umbreon VMAX #215: $4,020 at Fanatics
What the auction houses change.Every venue clears this card and the houses print a touch under eBay. In the window 24 of 28 PSA 10s sold on eBay at $2,300; Fanatics' $1,900 to $2,130 are the three lowest 10s of the month. Since Aug 20 the houses have moved 13 PSA 10s at $2,400 (ALT $2,281 to $2,580, Goldin $2,349, Fanatics $2,130 to $2,640), which tracked eBay down from $2,640 to $1,920. What the houses own is the top: both Black Labels ($33,300 and $32,400) were Fanatics Weekly. Sell a PSA 10 on eBay; consign a Black Label.
Interactive
Grade It or Skip It
Our numbers are filled in. Change any of them to match your card and your costs.
YOUR CARD
$
YOUR ODDS
Chance of an 8 or lower (what is left)
All PSA copies so far: 68% came back a 10, 22% a 9. We start at 65%.
WHAT IT SELLS FOR
$
$
$
Prices are Sep 10-21, 2026, every venue. Auction-house PSA 10 is the ALT, Goldin and Fanatics middle since Aug 20; PSA 9 is ALT's $1,016 (Aug 20). PSA 8 is the price guide.
FEES
%
$
$
$
PSA bills by declared value. A raw copy declared at $950 sits in a $75 tier; a 10 worth $2,300 moves up a tier, so we add $75.
IF YOU GRADE IT
RESULTCHANCEYOU KEEPVS SELLING RAW
PSA 10
PSA 9
8 or lower
SELL IT RAW TODAY
after the selling fee, no risk
GRADE IT, ON AVERAGE
after every fee, across all three results
GRADING ADDS
Chance of a 10 you need to break even
25-month arc · PSA 10
Price History
A $530 card two years ago, $1,000 through the first half of 2025, $1,800 by last fall, and a spring 2026 run to $3,000 in June. Three months of giving it back since. The 9 and the raw ran the same course a step behind.
PSA 10 average eBay sale and sold count from Terapeak (600-record cap); auction-house column is ALT, Goldin and Fanatics Weekly middle from Card Ladder (Aug 20 on). *September through the 20th.
Census
The Grading Picture
PSA GRADE DISTRIBUTION
10
67.9%
9
22.5%
8
5.7%
≤7
3.9%
22,265 graded by PSA. Two in three are a 10. A textured full-art from a 2021 set that collectors sleeved on day one.
BY GRADER
PSA
22,265
15,120 tens · 67.9%
CGC
2,158
11 Perfect · 262 Pristine · 892 tens
BGS
2,006
39 Black Label · 308 Pristine · 1,225 at 9.5
SGC
230
114 tens
A PSA card: 84% of all graded copies. CGC's plain 10 sells for 70% of PSA's, Beckett's Pristine for 1.8× and its Black Label for 15×. The label is the market.
SUPPLY: OPEN
Evolving Skies printed for two years and sealed product is still ripped for this card. 26,659 graded, 68% gem rate, and raw copies sell daily, so the 10 column adds hundreds a month. Estimated value of all slabbed copies at today's prices: about $50M.
New PSA 10s per month: tracking started Sep 2026.
Structure
Where the Money Is
$89K changed hands across 49 sales in eleven days, Sep 10 to 21, 2026.
SHARE OF ALL DOLLARS, BY GRADE
71%
12%
12%
71%of dollars · PSA 10
5%of dollars · PSA 9
12%of dollars · Raw
12%of dollars · Everything else
EBAY
$80K
90% of the money · every raw, every 9, 24 of 28 PSA 10s
AUCTION HOUSES
$9K
10% of the money · Fanatics Weekly: 4 PSA 10s, a CGC 9
SALES IN THE WINDOW, BY VENUE
44eBay5Fanatics Weekly0ALT0Goldin0Heritage
THE MOOD
Real PSA 10 listings start at $2,350 against a window price of $2,287. PSA 9s ask $1,192 against $1,108; raw copies $500 against $950. The 10 and the 9 are listed at the market; the raw asks sit under it, which says raw sellers have given up on the June price. Bid the 10 at $2,200 and wait a day.
The comps
Same Set, Other Alt Arts
EVOLVING SKIES ALT ART VMAX · PSA 10 · FANATICS
PRICE
VENUE · DATE
Rayquaza VMAX #218
$1,920
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 20, 2026
Rayquaza VMAX #218
$2,130
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 13, 2026
Rayquaza VMAX #218
$2,400
Fanatics Weekly · Aug 30, 2026
Umbreon VMAX #215
$4,200
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 13, 2026
Umbreon VMAX #215
$4,080
Fanatics Weekly · Aug 30, 2026
Umbreon VMAX #215
$3,720
Fanatics Weekly · Aug 23, 2026
Sylveon VMAX #212
$660
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 13, 2026
Leafeon VMAX #205
$576
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 13, 2026
Glaceon VMAX #209
$552
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 6, 2026
Leafeon VMAX #205
$492
Fanatics Weekly · Aug 30, 2026
Every Evolving Skies alt-art VMAX PSA 10 sold at the houses since Aug 21, 2026. The set has two chase cards and a pack of $500 ones: Umbreon at $4,020, Rayquaza at $2,400, everything else under $700. Both chases slid together through September; Umbreon held better.
The tape
Every sale in the window
SHOWING THE 10 MOST RECENT OF 49 SALES
All venues, all grades, Sep 10 to 21, 2026, $300 and up: 49 sales. 1 row excluded (a 'raw' copy at $3,100, an untitled slab). The two Black Label sales (Aug 28, Sep 6) are from the house file.
DATE
GRADE
PRICE
VENUE
Sep 21, 2026
PSA 10
$2,297
eBay
Sep 20, 2026
CGC 9
$870
Fanatics Weekly
Sep 20, 2026
BGS 10
$4,050
eBay
Sep 20, 2026
PSA 10
$2,300
eBay
Sep 20, 2026
PSA 10
$2,225
eBay
Sep 20, 2026
PSA 10
$2,165
eBay
Sep 20, 2026
PSA 10
$1,920
Fanatics Weekly
Sep 20, 2026
PSA 10
$1,920
Fanatics Weekly
Sep 19, 2026
PSA 10
$2,400
eBay
Sep 19, 2026
PSA 10
$2,349
eBay
Sep 19, 2026
PSA 10
$2,244
eBay
Sep 19, 2026
RAW
$1,075
eBay
Sep 19, 2026
PSA 9
$1,055
eBay
Sep 18, 2026
RAW
$485
eBay
Sep 18, 2026
PSA 10
$2,277
eBay
Sep 17, 2026
RAW
$787
eBay
Sep 17, 2026
PSA 10
$2,200
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
PSA 10
$2,125
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
CGC 9.5
$1,225
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
RAW
$890
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
PSA 10
$2,300
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
CGC 10
$1,905
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
RAW
$950
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
RAW
$916
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
PSA 10
$2,667
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
PSA 10
$2,400
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
PSA 10
$2,375
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
PSA 10
$2,125
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
PSA 10
$2,025
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
PSA 9
$1,200
eBay
Sep 14, 2026
RAW
$810
eBay
Sep 14, 2026
PSA 10
$2,350
eBay
Sep 14, 2026
PSA 10
$2,175
eBay
Sep 14, 2026
PSA 10
$2,159
eBay
Sep 14, 2026
RAW
$1,170
eBay
Sep 14, 2026
PSA 9
$1,160
eBay
Sep 13, 2026
PSA 10
$2,130
Fanatics Weekly
Sep 13, 2026
PSA 10
$2,550
eBay
Sep 13, 2026
PSA 10
$2,425
eBay
Sep 13, 2026
PSA 10
$2,423
eBay
Sep 12, 2026
PSA 10
$2,408
eBay
Sep 12, 2026
PSA 10
$1,900
Fanatics Weekly
Sep 12, 2026
RAW
$1,200
eBay
Sep 12, 2026
CGC 10
$1,100
eBay
Sep 11, 2026
PSA 9
$900
eBay
Sep 11, 2026
CGC 10
$1,599
eBay
Sep 11, 2026
RAW
$1,205
eBay
Sep 11, 2026
RAW
$1,100
eBay
Sep 10, 2026
PSA 10
$2,313
eBay
Where to buy
The Buy Ladder
PSA 10
STEAL
under $2,100
Below every eBay PSA 10 sale in the window; only Fanatics' $1,900 to $2,025 prints sit here
TARGET
$2,100 – $2,350
Where the window cleared: $2,287 middle, a dozen sales between $2,125 and $2,350
FAIR
$2,350 – $2,550
The upper half: $2,400 to $2,550 on eBay, ALT's $2,580
STRETCHED
$2,550 – $2,800
July and August money. Only one sale over $2,600 in the window ($2,667, Sep 15)
WALK AWAY
over $2,800
June money. The market has been under $2,700 for a month
PSA 9
Targetunder $1,050
Fair$1,050 – $1,200
Walk awayover $1,300
4 sales in the window, $900 to $1,200; ALT $1,016. A 9 is raw plus $158; the CGC 10 ($1,599) is the better buy if you want a 10 on the label.
RAW
Targetunder $850
Fair$850 – $1,000
Walk awayover $1,150
11 sales, $485 to $1,205, middle $950. Raw is a 68% shot at $2,287 for $75; under $850, with the foil checked under a light, it pays. The $485 was a bargain; the $1,205 was a 9 in waiting.
Every angle
The Case For and Against
FOR
Bottomless liquidity: 204 sales in 30 days, a PSA 10 three times a day, four venues
A 68% gem rate and a 2.4× raw-to-10 gap: the best grading math in modern Pokémon
The number-two card of the most-collected modern set, with a Black Label ceiling at $33,000 that keeps the whole ladder relevant
Up 37% on the year even after a 22% pullback; the 2025 floor was $1,000, the 2026 floor is $1,900
AGAINST
15,120 PSA 10s and hundreds more a month. This is the most common $2,300 card in the hobby
Three months of lower prices since the June peak, and the whole set slid with it. The next leg needs a reason
A 9 is raw plus $158 and a CGC 10 sells for 70% of a PSA 10. Only the PSA label carries the premium
Sealed Evolving Skies is still opened for this card. Supply does not stop
THE VERDICT
Holding a clean raw copy? Grade it. Two times in three it becomes a $2,287 card; the miss is a $1,108 card, still above raw. Holding a 10? It clears daily at $2,287 on eBay; the trend is down since June, so sell if you were going to and do not wait for $3,000. Holding a 9? It is raw with a label; sell it or keep the picture. Buying a 10? $2,100 to $2,350 at auction, this week, never the $2,700 listing. Buying raw to grade? Under $850 with a flashlight on the foil. Buying the Black Label? That is a different hobby.
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