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MARKET PILLAR · PATRICK MAHOMESData through Sep 20, 2026 · real data

Mahomes
Kaboom!

2024 Panini Absolute · Kaboom! Horizontal #1 · SSP case hit
68
SPOTLIGHT SCORE
GRADE IT
Liquid · rising · strict grader
Five parts, added together. On every line, a higher number is better. Tap the i for what it means.
Easy to buy & sell
21/25
Grading payoff
12/20
Scarcity
9/20
Price trend
13/15
Price vs similar cards
13/20

The most-traded Kaboom in football. A PSA 10 sold for about $2,000 through the first half of 2025, $3,100 last winter, and $4,681 this month, on eBay and at ALT alike. It sells every few days in every grade. The catch is the grader: only 15% of copies come back a 10, and a PSA 9 ($1,600) is worth barely more than a raw copy ($1,222).

PSA 10
30-Day Median
$4,681
  • •eBay $4,510
  • •auction houses $4,680
  • •9 sales in 90 days
PSA 10
21-Month Move
+123%
$1,999 in Feb 2025 to $4,464 now
PSA 9
30-Day Median
$1,600
  • •22 sales in 90 days
  • •raw $1,222
Total Graded Pop
910
  • •PSA 795
  • •SGC 57
  • •BGS 48
  • •CGC 10
PSA Gem Rate
15.2%
  • •121 tens
  • •546 nines
90-Day Volume
All Grades
$105K
  • •52 sales
  • •eBay plus three auction venues
The spine of the report

The Grade Ladder

Every grade this card trades at, most expensive at the top. The number between two rungs is what it costs to step up.

PSA 10
SELLS MOST DAYS
TYPICAL PRICE · LAST 30 DAYS
$4,681
eBay $4,510 · auction houses $4,680 (90 days)
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 3 a month
9 sales in 90 days · 39% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
121
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$3,081
2.9×
to step up from a PSA 9 to a PSA 10
PSA 9
SELLS DAILY
TYPICAL PRICE · LAST 30 DAYS
$1,600
eBay $1,725 · auction houses $1,620 (90 days)
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 2 a week
22 sales in 90 days · 35% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
546
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$378
1.31×
is all a PSA 9 adds over a raw copy. After the grading fee, a 9 barely pays
RAW
SELLS DAILY
TYPICAL PRICE · LAST 30 DAYS
$1,222
eBay and Fanatics Premier
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 2 a week
18 sales in 90 days · 22% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
—
ungraded, nobody counts them
TOO FEW SALES TO PRICEBGS 9.5 · 21 exist · $2,032 (Aug 2, 2026, Fanatics Premier) · $1,925 eBayPSA 8 · 97 exist · $1,400 (Sep 19, 2026), above rawSGC 9.5 · 28 exist · no sales in 90 daysPSA 7 and below · 29 exist · $875 (one sale)
PSA 10 ÷ PSA 9
2.9×
Josh Allen Optic Downtown: 2.1×
PSA 10 ÷ Raw
3.8×
PSA 9 ÷ Raw
1.31×
A 9 ($1,600) adds $378 over raw ($1,222)
Mahomes ÷ Maye (PSA 10, Houses)
1.3×
Drake Maye Kaboom PSA 10: $3,628 ALT, Sep 10, 2026
What the auction houses change. ALT prices the 10 and eBay prices everything else. 5 of 9 PSA 10 sales in 90 days were at ALT (one at Fanatics), and ALT's middle price is $4,680 against $4,510 on eBay, about 4% more; ALT printed the three highest 10s of the summer ($4,680, $4,681, $4,690). PSA 9s split across eBay, ALT and Fanatics Weekly with no gap: $1,620 at the houses, $1,725 on eBay. Raw sells on eBay only. If you own a 10, ALT is worth the consignment; a 9 or a raw copy sells fine on eBay.
Interactive

Grade It or Skip It

Our numbers are filled in. Change any of them to match your card and your costs.

YOUR CARD
$
YOUR ODDS
Chance of an 8 or lower (what is left)
All PSA copies so far: 15% came back a 10, 69% a 9. We start at 15%.
WHAT IT SELLS FOR
$
$
$
eBay prices, last 30 days. Auction-house prices are the last 90 days at ALT and Fanatics Weekly.
FEES
%
$
$
$
PSA bills the next tier up when a graded card is worth more than the tier you paid for. A 10 on this card crosses the $1,500 line, so we add $270.
IF YOU GRADE IT
RESULTCHANCEYOU KEEPVS SELLING RAW
PSA 10
PSA 9
8 or lower
SELL IT RAW TODAY
after the selling fee, no risk
GRADE IT, ON AVERAGE
after every fee, across all three results
GRADING ADDS
Chance of a 10 you need to break even
21-month arc

Price History

Flat near $2,000 through mid-2025, then a steady climb through the 2025 season and into 2026. Raw and PSA 9 sat on top of each other the whole way. White dots are our own monthly middle PSA 10 sale.

PSA 10PSA 10 monthly middle sale, our dataPSA 9Raw
$0$1K$2K$3K$4K$5KFeb 2025Aug 2025Jan 2026Jun 2026Sep 2026$1,999 · Feb 2025$4,464 · Sep 2026
2026
EBAY · SALES
MoM
AUCTION HOUSES
GAP
Jan
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Feb
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Mar
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Apr
— · 0
—
$3,713 · 1
—
May
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Jun
— · 0
—
$4,156 · 1
—
Jul
$4,275 · 2
—
$4,680 · 1
+9%
Aug
$4,469 · 1
+5%
$4,560 · 1
+2%
Sep*
$4,600 · 1
+3%
$4,686 · 2
+2%
PSA 10 middle sale price and number of sales, Card Ladder, every venue. *September through the 20th. ALT above eBay in every month it sold one.
Census

The Grading Picture

PSA GRADE DISTRIBUTION
10
15.2%
9
68.7%
8
12.2%
≤7
3.8%
795 graded by PSA. Two thirds are 9s. Kaboom's foil and edges make a 10 hard to earn.
BY GRADER
PSA
795
121 tens · 15.2%
SGC
57
2 tens · 28 at 9.5
BGS
48
1 ten · 21 at 9.5 · 45.8%
CGC
10
8 of 10 are authentic-only
A PSA card: 87% of all graded copies. SGC has graded 57 and given out two 10s.
SUPPLY: OPEN
The 2024 print run is done, but raw copies still change hands twice a week and the graded count grows every month. With a 15% gem rate most of that growth lands in the 9 column, which keeps the 9 close to raw. Estimated value of all slabbed copies at today's prices: about $1.77M.
New PSA 10s per month: tracking started Sep 2026.
Structure

Where the Money Is

$105K changed hands across 52 sales in the last 90 days.

SHARE OF ALL DOLLARS, BY GRADE
39%
35%
22%
39% of dollars · PSA 10
35% of dollars · PSA 9
22% of dollars · Raw
4% of dollars · Everything else
EBAY
$63K
60% of the money · every grade, and almost all the raw
AUCTION HOUSES
$42K
40% of the money · ALT, Fanatics Weekly, Fanatics Premier
SALES IN 90 DAYS, BY VENUE
35 eBay9 ALT6 Fanatics Weekly2 Fanatics Premier0 Goldin
THE MOOD
The cheapest PSA 10 listed is $5,500. The typical sale is $4,681. The cheapest raw listing is $1,500 against raw sales of $1,222. Sellers are asking 20% over the market at every rung. Buy at auction.
The comps

Same Insert, Other Kabooms

2024 ABSOLUTE KABOOM · PSA 10 · HOUSES
PRICE
VENUE · DATE
Patrick Mahomes #1
$4,690
ALT · Sep 10, 2026
Drake Maye #8 (rookie)
$3,628
ALT · Sep 10, 2026
Jayden Daniels #7
$2,592
ALT · Aug 27, 2026
Jayden Daniels #7 (rookie)
$2,520
Fanatics Weekly · Aug 30, 2026
Bo Nix #9 (rookie)
$2,430
ALT · Sep 17, 2026
Bo Nix #9 (rookie)
$2,100
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 6, 2026
Brock Bowers #11 (rookie)
$1,376
ALT · Sep 4, 2026
CJ Stroud #2
$844
ALT · Sep 17, 2026
Auction-house sales, newest first, base Kabooms only (the Gold /10 and Green 1/1 parallels trade in the tens of thousands). Mahomes is the top of the insert and the only veteran above the 2024 rookies. Stroud, two years removed from his rookie year, shows where a Kaboom goes when the story cools.
The tape

Every sale on record

SHOWING THE 10 MOST RECENT OF 53 SALES
All venues, all grades, Jun 22 to Sep 20, 2026, $500 and up, plus the Apr 30 ALT sale. Gold /10 ($33,664) and Green 1/1 ($237,900) parallels excluded.
DATE
GRADE
PRICE
VENUE
Sep 19, 2026
PSA 8
$1,400
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
PSA 9
$1,581
eBay
Sep 13, 2026
RAW
$1,175
eBay
Sep 11, 2026
PSA 9
$1,825
eBay
Sep 11, 2026
RAW
$1,200
eBay
Sep 10, 2026
PSA 10
$4,690
ALT
Sep 10, 2026
PSA 10
$4,681
ALT
Sep 10, 2026
PSA 9
$1,380
ALT
Sep 6, 2026
PSA 10
$4,600
eBay
Sep 5, 2026
RAW
$1,386
eBay
Where to buy

The Buy Ladder

PSA 10
STEAL
under $4,000
Below every PSA 10 sale of the last 90 days except one (eBay, $4,000, Jul 5, 2026)
TARGET
$4,000 – $4,500
Where eBay clears: $4,510 middle price, $4,469 and $4,550 in late July and August
FAIR
$4,500 – $4,700
The ALT level: $4,680 middle price, $4,690 high
STRETCHED
$4,700 – $5,500
Above every sale. The cheapest listing is $5,500
WALK AWAY
over $5,500
Listings at $6,000 and $7,500. Nobody has paid over $4,690
PSA 9
Targetunder $1,500
Fair$1,500 – $1,700
Walk awayover $1,900
22 sales in 90 days, $1,380 to $1,850. The cheapest listing is $3,000; ignore it. ALT sold one for $1,380 on Sep 10, 2026.
RAW
Targetunder $1,150
Fair$1,150 – $1,300
Walk awayover $1,450
Raw sells for $1,222 and a PSA 9 for $1,600. If you are buying raw to grade, you are paying $378 less than a 9 for a 15% shot at a 10. That is the whole trade.
Every angle

The Case For and Against

FOR
Liquid in every grade: 52 sales in 90 days, four venues, fourteen listings. The easiest Mahomes card to buy and sell at this price
Up in nine of the last ten months. PSA 10 from $2,000 to $4,681 without a spike, just a climb
The strict grader is your friend if you already own a 10: {psa['10']} PSA 10s exist and the 9 pile grows faster than the 10 pile
Two times the hot rookies at the houses. Mahomes at 31 with three rings is the safest veteran name in the sport
AGAINST
A 9 is a dead grade: $1,600 against $1,222 raw. If you grade and get a 9, and 69% do, you paid fees to add $378
Kaboom is an annual insert. Panini made a 2023 Mahomes Kaboom, a 2024, and a 2025. The design is the chase, and the design comes back every year
910 graded and rising. This is a liquid card, not a scarce one; the price is set by demand, not supply
Eighteen months of gains without a pullback. Mahomes cards have re-rated down before between seasons, and this one has never been tested
THE VERDICT

Holding a clean raw copy? Grade it, but only if it is clean. A 10 is worth $4,510 against $1,222 raw; a 9 gets your fees back and little more. Holding a 10? ALT pays $4,680, eBay $4,510; consign it. Buying a 10? $4,000 to $4,500 on eBay, and never the $5,500 listing. Buying a 9? Only under $1,500, and understand you are buying a raw card with a label. The trade on this card is raw under $1,150 with a loupe in your hand.

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FUTUREPSAGRADER RESEARCH · Data through Sep 20, 2026 · Not financial advice.