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CARD IMAGE
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MARKET PILLAR · LIONEL MESSIData through Sep 20, 2026 · real data

Messi
World Cup Manga

2026 Panini Prizm FIFA World Cup · Manga #10 · SSP case hit
48
SPOTLIGHT SCORE
GRADE IT
Open supply · falling · trade, not vault
Five parts, added together. On every line, a higher number is better. Tap the i for what it means.
Easy to buy & sell
20/25
Grading payoff
12/20
Scarcity
6/20
Price trend
2/15
Price vs similar cards
8/20

The World Cup summer's chase card. Raw copies sold for $15,000 the week it released; the first PSA 10 to hit an auction house brought $23,336 at ALT on Aug 6, 2026. Seven weeks later a PSA 10 is $9,350 and a raw copy is $5,450. Cases are still being opened, 85% of copies gem, and every new slab lands on a market that already has ten listed. This is what a chase card looks like while the supply is still arriving.

PSA 10
30-Day Median
$10,500
  • •eBay, 17 sales
  • •auction houses $10,500, 9 sales
  • •last 2 weeks $9,350
Since First House Sale
−60%
$23,336 at ALT on Aug 6, 2026 to $9,350 now
Raw since Release
−64%
$15,000 on Jun 30, 2026 to $5,450 now
Total Graded Pop
191
  • •PSA 174
  • •BGS 16
  • •CGC 1
  • •still growing
PSA Gem Rate
85.1%
148 tens of 174
90-Day Volume
All Grades
$803K
  • •79 sales
  • •eBay plus three auction houses
The spine of the report

The Grade Ladder

Every grade this card trades at, most expensive at the top. The number between two rungs is what it costs to step up. Prices are the last 30 days; the last two weeks are lower still.

PSA 10
SELLS DAILY
TYPICAL PRICE · EBAY, LAST 30 DAYS
$10,500
$10,500 at auction houses · last 2 weeks $9,350
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
4 a week
33 sales in 90 days · 50% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
148
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$4,951
1.9×
to step up from a raw copy to a PSA 10. There is no PSA 9 rung to speak of: with an 85% gem rate almost nobody lands there
RAW
SELLS DAILY
TYPICAL PRICE · EBAY, LAST 30 DAYS
$5,549
last 2 weeks $5,450 · eBay only
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
5 a week
41 sales in 90 days · 47% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
—
ungraded, nobody counts them
TOO FEW SALES TO PRICEPSA 9 · 16 exist · $4,755 twice (Sep 16 and 17, 2026, eBay) · below raw the week beforeBGS 9.5 · 9 exist · $10,000 (Aug 10, 2026, eBay)BGS 9 · $4,350 (Sep 19, 2026, eBay)PSA 8.5 · $6,150 (Aug 29, 2026, eBay)PSA 8 and below · 8 exist · no sales
PSA 10 ÷ Raw
1.9×
Wemby Prizm Silver: 2.7×
PSA 10 ÷ PSA 9
2.2×
two PSA 9 sales, both $4,755
Messi ÷ Yamal (PSA 10, Houses)
1.4×
Yamal Manga PSA 10: $7,523, 6 house sales
Messi ÷ Ronaldo (PSA 10, Houses)
1.5×
Ronaldo Manga PSA 10: $7,006, 2 house sales
What the auction houses change. The houses set the top and then confirmed the slide. ALT's $23,336 on Aug 6, 2026 was the first PSA 10 sale anywhere and remains the high. Goldin followed at $19,520 and $15,067 the next week, Fanatics Weekly at $14,400 twice, then $13,800, $12,600, $12,000, $10,500, $9,900. In the last 30 days the houses' middle price is $10,500 against $10,500 on eBay, no real gap. 9 of 26 PSA 10 sales this month were house sales. Takeaway: on a card falling this fast, the venue does not matter; the week does. Sell at the first venue that closes.
Interactive

Grade It or Skip It

Our numbers are filled in. Change any of them to match your card and your costs.

YOUR CARD
$
YOUR ODDS
Chance of an 8 or lower (what is left)
All PSA copies so far: 85% came back a 10. We start at 75% because the case hits pulled first were the cleanest.
WHAT IT SELLS FOR
$
$
$
eBay prices, last 30 days. The last two weeks are lower ($9,350 for a 10, $5,450 raw); lower them yourself if you are grading today.
FEES
%
$
$
$
PSA bills the next tier up when a graded card is worth more than the tier you paid for. A 10 on this card crosses the $1,500 line, so we add $150.
IF YOU GRADE IT
RESULTCHANCEYOU KEEPVS SELLING RAW
PSA 10
PSA 9
8 or lower
SELL IT RAW TODAY
after the selling fee, no risk
GRADE IT, ON AVERAGE
after every fee, across all three results
GRADING ADDS
Chance of a 10 you need to break even
12-week arc · our data

Price History

Weekly middle sale price from every venue. There is no price guide history for a card this new, so this is built from the sales themselves. Twelve weeks, one direction.

PSA 10 (weekly middle sale, all venues)Raw (weekly middle sale)
$0$5K$10K$15K$20K$25KJun 29Jul 20Aug 10Aug 31$23,336 · Aug 6, 2026 · ALTRaw $15,000 · Jun 30, 2026
2026
EBAY · SALES
MoM
AUCTION HOUSES
GAP
Jun
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Jul
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Aug
$13,701 · 9
—
$13,200 · 10
−4%
Sep*
$9,500 · 11
−31%
$9,900 · 3
+4%
PSA 10 middle sale price and number of sales, Card Ladder, every venue. *September through the 20th. June and July had no graded copies yet.
Census

The Grading Picture

PSA GRADE DISTRIBUTION
10
85.1%
9
9.2%
8
2.3%
≤7
2.3%
174 graded by PSA. 85% are 10s. A fresh Prizm insert from a live product grades clean.
BY GRADER
PSA
174
148 tens · 85.1%
BGS
16
1 ten · 9 at 9.5 · 62.5%
CGC
1
one 10
SGC
0
none graded
A PSA card: 91% of all graded copies. Beckett's 9.5 sold for about the same as a PSA 10 the one time it traded.
SUPPLY: OPEN
The product is still shipping and still being broken. Every case yields one of these, 85% of them gem, and the graded count went from zero to 191 in eight weeks. Until the last case is opened the supply of PSA 10s grows every week, and the price has tracked it down. Estimated value of all slabbed copies at today's prices: about $1.8M.
New PSA 10s per month: tracking started Sep 2026.
Structure

Where the Money Is

$803K changed hands across 79 sales in the last 90 days.

SHARE OF ALL DOLLARS, BY GRADE
50%
47%
50% of dollars · PSA 10
47% of dollars · Raw
1% of dollars · PSA 9
3% of dollars · Everything else
EBAY
$590K
73% of the money · every grade, and the only place raw sells
AUCTION HOUSES
$214K
27% of the money · all PSA 10s
PSA 10 SALES SINCE RELEASE, BY VENUE
20 eBay7 Fanatics Weekly6 ALT0 Goldin0 Heritage
THE MOOD
The cheapest PSA 10 listed is $9,999, with ten listed. The last two weeks of sales cleared at $9,350. The cheapest raw listing is $6,000 against raw sales of $5,450. Ten sellers holding at last month's price. Buyers are winning every auction below it.
The comps

Same Insert, Other Stars

2026 PRIZM WORLD CUP MANGA · PSA 10 · HOUSES
PRICE
VENUE · DATE
Lionel Messi #10
$10,065
Goldin · Sep 17, 2026
Lionel Messi #10
$11,999
ALT · Sep 10, 2026
Lamine Yamal #6
$8,100
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 6, 2026
Lamine Yamal #6
$7,500
ALT · Sep 10, 2026
Cristiano Ronaldo #7
$7,201
ALT · Sep 10, 2026
Lamine Yamal #6
$6,900
ALT · Sep 17, 2026
Cristiano Ronaldo #7
$6,811
Goldin · Sep 3, 2026
Jude Bellingham #9
$2,556
ALT · Sep 10, 2026
Diego Maradona #30
$1,920
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 6, 2026
Neymar Jr #26
$1,560
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 6, 2026
Auction-house sales, newest first. Messi leads, but Yamal, the 19-year-old, is within 20% of him and Ronaldo within 30%. The whole insert has been repricing lower together; Messi is not falling alone.
The tape

Every sale on record

SHOWING THE 10 MOST RECENT OF 79 SALES
All venues, all grades, Jun 30 to Sep 20, 2026, $500 and up. Other cards (#19), a 2025-26 Barcelona card and five Card Hobby (China) rows excluded.
DATE
GRADE
PRICE
VENUE
Sep 19, 2026
RAW
$5,450
eBay
Sep 19, 2026
BGS 9
$4,350
eBay
Sep 19, 2026
RAW
$3,908
eBay
Sep 17, 2026
PSA 10
$8,200
eBay
Sep 17, 2026
PSA 9
$4,755
eBay
Sep 17, 2026
RAW
$10,065
Goldin
Sep 16, 2026
PSA 10
$9,200
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
RAW
$5,000
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
PSA 9
$4,755
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
RAW
$5,500
eBay
Where to buy

The Buy Ladder

PSA 10
STEAL
under $8,500
Below every PSA 10 sale so far. The lowest print is $8,200 (eBay, Sep 17, 2026), and the trend says this zone is coming
TARGET
$8,500 – $9,500
Where the last two weeks cleared: 10 sales, middle price $9,350
FAIR
$9,500 – $10,500
The 30-day middle price ($10,500). Fine last month, above the market this week
STRETCHED
$10,500 – $12,000
The listing wall: ten PSA 10s asking $9,999 to $12,000. Nobody has paid over $10,300 since Sep 5
WALK AWAY
over $12,000
August prices. The August buyers are the ones listing at $12,000 now
RAW
Targetunder $5,000
Fair$5,000 – $5,800
Walk awayover $6,500
Raw sold at $3,908 to $5,800 in the last two weeks. The cheapest listing is $6,000. Buy raw at auction and grade it: 85% gem.
PSA 9
Targetunder $4,000
Fair$4,000 – $4,800
Walk awayover $5,500
Two sales, both $4,755, less than raw sold for the week before. A 9 on this card is a mistake to buy and a loss to receive. The one listed asks $9,999.
Every angle

The Case For and Against

FOR
The most liquid card in this report set: 79 sales in 90 days, ten listed, four venues. You can always get out
Grading is a coin you win 85% of the time: raw $5,549, PSA 10 $10,500, fees under $300
It is Messi's World Cup card in the summer the World Cup was played in his adopted country. The story does not get better than that for a soccer card
If Argentina and Messi go deep in the tournament, this is the card the moment points at, and the fall could reverse in a week
AGAINST
It has lost value every single week since it was first graded. $23,336 to $9,350 in seven weeks, and nothing in the data says the floor is in
Supply is open. Cases are still being ripped, gems are 85%, and the graded count has doubled every few weeks. Every new 10 competes with the ten already listed
The 10 is worth only 1.9× raw, the thinnest grading premium of any card in this series. When 85% gem, a slab is not scarce
Yamal's Manga sells for $7,523 at the same houses. If the market decides the 19-year-old is the World Cup story, the Messi premium compresses further
THE VERDICT

Holding a raw copy? Grade it and sell it fast. 85% gem and a 10 is worth $10,500 against $5,549 raw. But do it now: every week at PSA costs you money on this card. Holding a 10? Sell it at whichever venue closes first; the houses and eBay pay the same and the price is lower next week. Buying? Only under $8,500, only if you want the card, and only knowing that the supply is still arriving. This is a trade on the World Cup, not a vault card. The vault version of Messi is not a 2026 insert with 148 tens and counting.

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FUTUREPSAGRADER RESEARCH · Data through Sep 20, 2026 · Not financial advice.