MARKET PILLAR · JOSH ALLENData through Sep 20, 2026 · real data
Josh Allen Optic Downtown
2024 Panini Donruss Optic · Downtown! #2 · case hit
SPOTLIGHT SCORE
GRADE IT
Case hit, supply capped · steady climber
Five parts, added together. On every line, a higher number is better. Tap the i for what it means.
Easy to buy & sell
14/25
What it measures. How often this card changes hands. High = you can buy or sell one any week at a known price. Why this card got 14 of 25. About 52 sales in 90 days across eBay, ALT, Goldin and Fanatics, roughly four a week. Easy to sell, but a PSA 10 only trades once or twice a week, so you wait for the right one.
Grading payoff
15/20
What it measures. How much a raw copy gains by being graded, after fees, and how likely a top grade is. High = grading a clean copy is clearly worth it. Why this card got 15 of 20. Half of all PSA submissions came back a 10 (49%). A 10 sells for 2.2× raw, and you only need about a 18% shot at a 10 to beat selling raw. Points held back because a 9 adds almost nothing over raw.
Scarcity
14/20
What it measures. How hard the card is to find and whether that will stay true. High = few exist and no more are coming. Low = plenty around, or supply still growing. Why this card got 14 of 20. Downtown is a case hit, and only 522 copies have ever been graded, 233 of them PSA 10s. Raw copies are still being graded, so the count creeps up, but slowly.
Price trend
11/15
What it measures. Which way prices have been moving. High = rising on real sales. Why this card got 11 of 15. PSA 10 climbed from $1,253 in Feb 2026 to $1,638 now, up in six of the seven months since. Held back because it is still 44% under its Apr 2025 launch price.
Price vs similar cards
12/20
What it measures. Whether today's price looks cheap or expensive next to comparable cards. High = cheap for what it is. Why this card got 12 of 20. At the auction houses a Jayden Daniels rookie Downtown PSA 10 sells for about $1,860 and Lamar's for $795. Allen's $1,816 sits between: fair for the reigning MVP, not a bargain.
The MVP's case hit launched near $2,907, lost more than half of that by winter, and has climbed back to $1,625 for a PSA 10, one month at a time. The auction houses now pay more for it than eBay does. Grading a clean raw copy still pays. A PSA 9 does not.
PSA 10 30-Day Median
$1,625
•eBay, 3 sales
•auction houses $1,816, 3 sales in 90 days
PSA 10 9-Month Move
+29%
$1,274 in Dec 2025 to $1,638 now
PSA 10 Vs Launch
−44%
•Launch month $2,907
•Apr 2025
Total Graded Pop
522
•PSA 478
•BGS 23
•SGC 15
•CGC 6
PSA Gem Rate
48.7%
233 tens
90-Day Volume All Grades
$51K
•53 sales
•eBay plus ALT, Goldin and Fanatics
The spine of the report
The Grade Ladder
Every grade this card trades at, most expensive at the top. The number between two rungs is what it costs to step up.
PSA 10
SELLS MOST DAYS
TYPICAL PRICE · EBAY, LAST 30 DAYS
$1,625
$1,816 at auction houses
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
1 to 2 a week
14 sales in 90 days · 46% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
233
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$850
2.1×
to step up from a PSA 9 to a PSA 10. At the auction houses the gap is wider: $1,096.
PSA 9
SELLS MOST DAYS
TYPICAL PRICE · EBAY, LAST 30 DAYS
$775
$720 at auction houses (since Dec 2025)
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
About 1 a week
11 sales in 90 days · 16% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
200
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$46
1.06×
is all a PSA 9 adds over a raw copy. Grading to a 9 loses money after fees.
RAW
SELLS MOST DAYS
TYPICAL PRICE · EBAY, LAST 30 DAYS
$729
eBay only, none at auction
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
2 a week
24 sales in 90 days · 32% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
—
ungraded, nobody counts them
TOO FEW SALES TO PRICEBGS 9.5 · 10 exist · sold $925 (Aug 16, 2026) and $950 (Sep 15, 2026)SGC 9.5 · 7 exist · one sale, $874 (Jul 26, 2026, Fanatics Premier)SGC 10 · 3 exist · last sold $990 (Feb 21, 2026, Fanatics Weekly)PSA 8 and below · 42 exist · one PSA 7 sold, $530 (Jul 30, 2026)
PSA 10 ÷ PSA 9
2.1× to 2.5×
eBay 2.1× · auction houses 2.5×
PSA 10 ÷ Raw
2.2×
$1,625 against a $729 raw copy
PSA 9 ÷ Raw
1.06×
A PSA 9 ($775) sells for about $46 more than a raw copy ($729)
Allen ÷ Daniels (PSA 10, Houses)
0.98×
Daniels rookie Downtown PSA 10: $1,860 median at the houses
What the auction houses change.On eBay a PSA 10 sells for $1,625. At ALT and Goldin the last three went for $1,596, $1,816 and $2,501, a middle price of $1,816, about 12% more. That is the reverse of most cards, where the houses run cheaper. Two takeaways. If you own a 10, consign it to ALT or Goldin rather than listing it on eBay. If you are buying a 10, eBay is the cheaper venue, and the 10-to-9 ratio there (2.1×) is the one to use. PSA 9s and raw copies sell for the same money everywhere.
Interactive
Grade It or Skip It
Our numbers are filled in. Change any of them to match your card and your costs.
YOUR CARD
$
YOUR ODDS
Chance of an 8 or lower (what is left)
All PSA copies so far: 49% came back a 10. We start at 40% because the cleanest copies were graded first.
WHAT IT SELLS FOR
$
$
$
eBay prices are the last 30 days. Auction-house prices are what ALT, Goldin and Fanatics paid: the 10 sells higher there.
FEES
%
$
$
$
PSA bills the next tier up when a graded card is worth more than the tier you paid for. A 10 on this card crosses the $1,500 line, so we add $70.
IF YOU GRADE IT
RESULTCHANCEYOU KEEPVS SELLING RAW
PSA 10
PSA 9
8 or lower
SELL IT RAW TODAY
after the selling fee, no risk
GRADE IT, ON AVERAGE
after every fee, across all three results
GRADING ADDS
Chance of a 10 you need to break even
18-month arc
Price History
Launch hype in Apr 2025, a slide to $1,253 by Feb 2026, then a steady climb through the 2026 season. Raw and PSA 9 have moved as one line the whole way.
PSA 10PSA 9Raw
2026
EBAY · SALES
MoM
AUCTION HOUSES
GAP
Jan
$1,275 · 5
—
$1,464 · 1
+15%
Feb
$1,260 · 7
−1%
$1,464 · 2
+16%
Mar
$1,275 · 6
+1%
— · 0
—
Apr
$1,450 · 6
+14%
— · 0
—
May
$1,499 · 7
+3%
— · 0
—
Jun
$1,550 · 4
+3%
$1,740 · 1
+12%
Jul
$1,560 · 5
+1%
— · 0
—
Aug
$1,612 · 2
+3%
$2,048 · 2
+27%
Sep*
$1,650 · 1
+2%
$1,816 · 1
+10%
PSA 10 middle sale price and number of sales. *September through the 20th. eBay column from Terapeak, which lists a multi-quantity listing on its last sale date, so recent months read slightly light. The houses have been above eBay in every month they sold one.
Census
The Grading Picture
PSA GRADE DISTRIBUTION
10
48.7%
9
41.8%
8
6.7%
≤7
2.7%
478 graded by PSA. 90.6% came back a 9 or a 10. PSA's own count on Sep 20, 2026: 199 nines, 232 above.
BY GRADER
PSA
478
233 tens · 48.7%
BGS
23
10 at 9.5 · 43.5%
SGC
15
3 tens · 20.0%
CGC
6
0 gems · 4 of 6 are authentic-only
This is a PSA card: 92% of all graded copies. BGS and SGC are footnotes here.
SUPPLY: CAPPED, STILL FILLING
Downtown is a case hit, so the total pool is small and finished. But raw copies still trade every week and half of them gem, so the PSA 10 count keeps creeping up. Estimated value of all slabbed copies at today's prices: about $585K.
New PSA 10s per month: tracking started Sep 2026.
Structure
Where the Money Is
$51K changed hands across about 53 sales in the last 90 days.
SHARE OF ALL DOLLARS, BY GRADE
46%
32%
16%
46%of dollars · PSA 10
32%of dollars · Raw
16%of dollars · PSA 9
6%of dollars · Everything else
EBAY
$44K
87% of the money · every grade, and the only place raw copies sell
AUCTION HOUSES
$6.8K
13% of the money · 3 PSA 10s and one SGC 9.5
SALES SINCE DEC 2025, BY AUCTION HOUSE (BASE CARD)
7ALT4Fanatics Weekly3Goldin0Heritage
THE MOOD
The cheapest raw copy listed on eBay is $900. The typical raw sale is $729. Not a single Optic PSA 10 is listed Buy-It-Now. Sellers are asking above the market and holding their 10s. Buyers get filled at auction, not from listings.
The comps
Same Insert, Other Names
2024 OPTIC DOWNTOWN · PSA 10 · AUCTION HOUSES
MIDDLE PRICE
SALES
Jayden Daniels (rookie) #10
$1,860
10 since Dec 2025
Josh Allen #2 · last 90 days
$1,816
3 sales
Josh Allen #2 · since Dec 2025
$1,548
8 sales
Patrick Mahomes · Downtown Duos (w/ Kelce)
$2,025
12 since Dec 2025
Lamar Jackson
$795
4 since Dec 2025
Same insert, same year, same venues. The rookie (Daniels) and the Mahomes duo sell above Allen; the other veteran MVP (Lamar) sells at less than half. Allen's price is a veteran-star price, not a rookie price. There is no solo Mahomes in 2024 Optic Downtown.
The tape
Every auction-house sale on record
SHOWING THE 10 MOST RECENT OF 14 SALES
Base card only, ALT · Goldin · Fanatics Weekly, since Nov 2025. Gold /10 and Black Pandora /25 parallels excluded.
DATE
GRADE
PRICE
VENUE
Sep 04, 2026
PSA 10
$1,816
ALT
Aug 27, 2026
PSA 10
$2,501
Goldin
Aug 20, 2026
PSA 10
$1,596
ALT
Jun 18, 2026
PSA 10
$1,740
ALT
May 07, 2026
PSA 9
$590
Goldin
May 03, 2026
PSA 9
$810
Fanatics Weekly
Mar 22, 2026
PSA 9
$630
Fanatics Weekly
Mar 22, 2026
PSA 9
$720
Fanatics Weekly
Feb 21, 2026
SGC 10
$990
Fanatics Weekly
Feb 19, 2026
PSA 10
$1,428
ALT
Feb 05, 2026
PSA 10
$1,500
ALT
Jan 22, 2026
PSA 10
$1,464
Goldin
Nov 27, 2025
PSA 9
$756
ALT
Nov 13, 2025
PSA 10
$1,422
ALT
Where to buy
The Buy Ladder
PSA 10
STEAL
under $1,500
Below every eBay sale of the last 90 days except one ($1,450, Jul 1, 2026)
TARGET
$1,500 – $1,600
Bottom third of the 90-day eBay range. Most eBay 10s this summer sold here
FAIR
$1,600 – $1,700
Up to the 30-day median of $1,625. There is no Buy-It-Now to anchor on: not one Optic PSA 10 is listed on eBay today
STRETCHED
$1,700 – $1,900
Auction-house territory. ALT sold one at $1,816 on Sep 4, 2026; the eBay high in 90 days was $1,736
WALK AWAY
over $1,900
Only one sale has cleared this: Goldin, $2,501 on Aug 27, 2026, buyer's premium included
RAW
Targetunder $650
Fair$650 – $750
Walk awayover $850
The cheapest raw Buy-It-Now is $900, above every raw sale of the last 90 days. Buy raw at auction, never off a listing.
PSA 9
Targetunder $700
Fair$700 – $800
Walk awayover $900
The cheapest PSA 9 listed is $920. Raw sells for $729. Paying more than about $800 for a 9 means paying for a grade that adds nothing.
Every angle
The Case For and Against
FOR
The reigning MVP's case-hit card from the last Optic set before Panini's NFL license ends. 522 graded copies in total, and the print run is done
Steady, not spiky: the PSA 10 has climbed from $1,253 in Feb 2026 to $1,638 now, almost every month, on real sales at every venue
Grading a clean raw copy pays. Half of submissions gem, a 10 is worth 2.2× raw, and you need only about a 18% shot at a 10 to come out ahead
The auction houses pay MORE than eBay for this one: $1,816 against $1,625. If you own a 10, you have a better exit than the eBay price suggests
AGAINST
Still 44% under its $2,907 launch price from Apr 2025. The people who bought at release are still underwater
A PSA 9 is nearly worthless as a grade: it sells for about $46 more than a raw copy, so a 9 result means you paid fees for nothing
Thin at the top: only 14 PSA 10 sales in 90 days across every venue. One bad week of football and there is no bid under you
The paper 2024 Donruss Downtown Josh Allen is also card #2 and looks similar in a search. Its PSA 10s are listed at $1,889 and up. Do not pay Optic money for the paper card
THE VERDICT
Holding a clean raw copy? Grade it. You need about a 18% shot at a 10 to beat selling it raw, and half of them gem. Sell the 10 at ALT or Goldin, where it fetches $1,816 against $1,625 on eBay. Buying? Buy the 10 on eBay in the Target zone, $1,500 to $1,600, and skip the PSA 9 entirely: it costs $775 and a raw copy costs $729. Never pay the $900 raw listing price when raw sells for $729 at auction. And check the word Optic on the slab before you pay: the paper Downtown is card #2 too.
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