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MARKET PILLAR · KIMI ANTONELLIData through Sep 21, 2026 · real data

Kimi Antonelli
2025 Chrome F1 Refractor RC

2025 Topps Chrome Formula 1 · #8 Refractor · rookie card · the Mercedes seat
57
SPOTLIGHT SCORE
GRADE IT
True rookie · 39% gem rate · raw 4× since January
Five parts, added together. On every line, a higher number is better. Tap the i for what it means.
Easy to buy & sell
17/25
Grading payoff
11/20
Scarcity
7/20
Price trend
14/15
Price vs similar cards
8/20

Antonelli's true rookie: card #8 of 2025 Topps Chrome Formula 1, his first card as an F1 driver, in the Refractor. Nine months ago a raw one was $72. Now it is $310, a PSA 10 is $1,950 (five sales in thirty days, $1,700 to $2,000) and a PSA 9 is $440. PSA has graded 308 and gemmed 39%; the 9 and the 8 are centering, which Chrome F1 is famous for. On Sep 20 the Red Refractor /5 of this card sold at Goldin for $360,510, the number that told the hobby what it thinks of the driver. The base Refractor is the version you can own, and it has tripled since spring on a rising count of buyers.

PSA 10
30-Day Median
$1,950
  • •5 sales Sep 6-20
  • •$1,700 to $2,000
  • •eBay
PSA 10
Since June
+60%
  • •$1,222 Jun-Jul to $1,950
  • •$600 in April
Raw
30-Day Median
$310
  • •13 sales
  • •$170 to $400
  • •was $72 in January
Total Graded Pop
322
  • •PSA 308
  • •CGC 14
  • •no BGS or SGC yet
PSA Gem Rate
38.6%
  • •119 tens
  • •130 nines
  • •40 eights
Sales in 30 Days
Card Ladder
24
  • •base Refractor only, title-filtered
  • •6 PSA 9
The spine of the report

The Grade Ladder

Every grade this card trades at, most expensive at the top. Base Refractor #8 only; the colour, Lazer and RayWave Refractors are different cards and sit in the strip.

PSA 10
SELLS MOST DAYS
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, LAST 30 DAYS
$1,950
$1,700 to $2,000 · eBay, Sep 6-20 · ALT $1,320 (Jul 30)
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
Every 6 days
5 sales in 30 days · 60% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
119
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$1,510
4.43×
from a PSA 9 to a PSA 10. Four fifths of the card is in this step
PSA 9
SELLS MOST DAYS
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, LAST 30 DAYS
$440
$265 to $550 · eBay, Aug 28 to Sep 14, 2026
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
Every 4 days
6 sales in 30 days · 15% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
130
graded copies at this rung
▲ +$130
1.42×
from raw to a PSA 9
RAW
SELLS DAILY
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, LAST 30 DAYS
$310
$170 to $400 · eBay, Sep 7-18, 2026
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
Every other day
13 sales in 30 days · 25% of all dollars
HOW MANY EXIST
—
ungraded, nobody counts them
▲ +$68
1.28×
is what a RAW copy sells for over the PSA 8 guide
PSA 8
RARELY SELLS
TYPICAL PRICE · ALL VENUES, LAST 30 DAYS
$242
guide · no base-Refractor PSA 8 sale found in six months
HOW OFTEN IT SELLS
A few a month
0 found ·
HOW MANY EXIST
40
graded copies at this rung
TOO FEW SALES TO PRICEPSA 7 · $245 (eBay, Aug 4, 2026): raw money · 14 existRed Refractor /5 · $360,510 (Goldin, Sep 20, 2026), the F1 record; 6 gradedNumbered Refractors · Green /99 PSA 9 $866 (Aug 20) · Blue /150 raw $915 (Sep 13) · Teal /299 raw $600 (Sep 20), PSA 9 $400 to $430 · Pink /250 PSA 9 $425 to $749, PSA 10 $655 (May 12)Black & White Lazer / RayWave · cheaper unnumbered Refractors: Lazer PSA 10 $1,097 (Sep 8), PSA 9 $193 to $198, raw $130 to $142 · RayWave raw $65 to $100 · Lazer and RayWave listings are often titled as the base RefractorNot the rookie · 2024 Topps Chrome F1 #22 (his F2 Future Stars card): Red Checker /5 PSA $5,160 (Fanatics, Sep 20) · Mini Diamond /299 raw $150
PSA 10 ÷ PSA 9
4.4×
119 tens against 130 nines
PSA 10 ÷ Raw
6.3×
with a 39% chance of getting there
Raw Now ÷ January
4.3×
$72 to $310 on eBay monthly averages
Antonelli ÷ Hamilton Sapphire #1 (PSA 10)
2.1×
$1,950 against the F1 anchor card at $920
What the auction houses change. The houses have barely touched the base Refractor and they are the whole story for the parallels. ALT sold one PSA 10 at $1,320 on Jul 30 (the market price that week) and one PSA 9 at $266; every sale since has been eBay, 5 PSA 10s at a $1,950 median. Goldin sold the Red Refractor /5 for $360,510 on Sep 20, which is what made Antonelli a headline card and pulled the base up with it. For a base 10, eBay is the market; for anything numbered, it is Goldin.
Interactive

Grade It or Skip It

Our numbers are filled in. Change any of them to match your card and your costs.

YOUR CARD
$
YOUR ODDS
Chance of an 8 or lower (what is left)
All PSA copies so far: 39% came back a 10, 42% a 9, 13% an 8. We start at 38%; centering is the whole grade on Chrome F1.
WHAT IT SELLS FOR
$
$
$
Prices are the last 30 days, every venue. The PSA 8 is the SportsCardsPro guide (no base-Refractor 8 sold in six months). Auction-house prices are ALT's July sales.
FEES
%
$
$
$
PSA bills by declared value: $25 at raw money, and a $1,950 result moves up two tiers, so we add $50 on a 10. Edit both for your submission.
IF YOU GRADE IT
RESULTCHANCEYOU KEEPVS SELLING RAW
PSA 10
PSA 9
8 or lower
SELL IT RAW TODAY
after the selling fee, no risk
GRADE IT, ON AVERAGE
after every fee, across all three results
GRADING ADDS
Chance of a 10 you need to break even
Nine months · PSA 10

Price History

The card's whole life: $210 when the first slabs appeared in February, $710 in April, $1,125 in June, $1,703 now. The 9 went $72 to $367 and raw $61 to $263 on the same curve. Every month higher than the last but one.

PSA 10PSA 10 eBay monthly average, TerapeakPSA 9Raw
$0$500$1K$1,500$2KJan 2026MarMayJulSep 2026$210 · Feb 2026$1,703 · Sep 2026
2026
EBAY · SALES (PSA 10)
MoM
AUCTION HOUSES
GAP
Jan
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Feb
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Mar
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Apr
$600 · 1
—
— · 0
—
May
— · 0
—
— · 0
—
Jun
$1,312 · 4
+119%
— · 0
—
Jul
$1,425 · 1
+9%
$1,320 · 1
−7%
Aug
$1,301 · 1
−9%
— · 0
—
Sep*
$1,875 · 4
+44%
— · 0
—
PSA 10 average eBay sale and sold count from Terapeak (base Refractor, title-filtered); auction-house column is ALT. *September through the 20th. Product released in the winter.
Census

The Grading Picture

PSA GRADE DISTRIBUTION
10
38.6%
9
42.2%
8
13.0%
≤7
6.2%
308 graded by PSA in nine months. Four in ten are a 10, four in ten a 9. Topps Chrome F1 is cut off-centre more often than any Chrome product; the 9s are left-right centering, not surface.
BY GRADER
PSA
308
119 tens · 38.6%
CGC
14
1 ten · 4 Authentic
BGS
0
none listed
SGC
0
none listed
A PSA card (96%); one CGC 10 exists and the guide prices it at 60% of the PSA 10. BGS 9.5 is listed at $1,900 on eBay with no sale behind it.
SUPPLY: AN UNNUMBERED REFRACTOR FROM A 2025 FLAGSHIP
2025 Topps Chrome Formula 1 released over the winter and is still being opened. The Refractor is the unnumbered first parallel; nobody publishes its count, and 322 graded in nine months with raw copies selling every other day says thousands exist. The pop will keep growing as long as the price does. Estimated value of all slabbed copies at today's prices: about $311K.
New PSA 10s per month: tracking started Sep 2026.
Structure

Where the Money Is

$16.0K changed hands across 24 base-Refractor sales in thirty days, Aug 21 to Sep 20, 2026.

SHARE OF ALL DOLLARS, BY GRADE
60%
15%
25%
60% of dollars · PSA 10
15% of dollars · PSA 9
25% of dollars · Raw
EBAY
$16.0K
100% of the month's money · every sale of every grade
AUCTION HOUSES
$0
0% this month · ALT: one PSA 10 ($1,320) and one PSA 9 ($266) on Jul 30
SALES IN 30 DAYS, BY VENUE
24 eBay0 ALT0 Goldin0 Fanatics Weekly0 Heritage
THE MOOD
Two PSA 10s are listed, both at $3,000, against five sales at $1,700 to $2,000; a PSA 9 asks $450 against $440, which is the market; raw asks $325 to $350 against $310. The 9 and the raw are priced to sell today. The 10s are priced for the Red /5 headline. Bid $1,900 and wait; one clears every six days.
The comps

The Rookie, Its Parallels, and the F1 Anchor

ANTONELLI #8 AND F1 COMPS
PRICE
VENUE · DATE
#8 Refractor · PSA 10
$2,000
eBay · Sep 10, 2026
#8 Refractor · PSA 10
$1,320
ALT · Jul 30, 2026
#8 Refractor · PSA 9
$457
eBay · Sep 14, 2026
#8 Red Refractor /5 · PSA
$360,510
Goldin · Sep 20, 2026
#8 Green Refractor /99 · PSA 9
$866
eBay · Aug 20, 2026
#8 Blue Refractor /150 · raw
$915
eBay · Sep 13, 2026
#8 B&W Lazer Refractor · PSA 10
$1,097
eBay · Sep 8, 2026
2024 Chrome F1 #22 (F2) Red Checker /5 · PSA
$5,160
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 20, 2026
Hamilton 2020 Chrome Sapphire #1 · PSA 10
$1,200
Fanatics Weekly · Sep 13, 2026
The parallels tell you the ceiling (a six-figure Red /5) and the floor (a Lazer 10 at half the base 10). The 2024 #22 is his F2 card, not the rookie, and trades at a fraction. Hamilton's Sapphire #1 is the anchor card the whole F1 hobby prices against; Antonelli's rookie 10 is already twice it.
The tape

Every base-Refractor sale, six months

SHOWING THE 10 MOST RECENT OF 40 SALES
All venues, title-filtered to the base Refractor #8: 40 rows (PSA 10 and 9 back to May; raw for the last 30 days). Parallel rows are in the data file.
DATE
GRADE
PRICE
VENUE
Sep 20, 2026
PSA 10
$1,900
eBay
Sep 18, 2026
RAW
$300
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
RAW
$355
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
RAW
$325
eBay
Sep 16, 2026
RAW
$202
eBay
Sep 15, 2026
RAW
$310
eBay
Sep 14, 2026
PSA 9
$457
eBay
Sep 14, 2026
RAW
$170
eBay
Sep 13, 2026
RAW
$400
eBay
Sep 13, 2026
RAW
$315
eBay
Where to buy

The Buy Ladder

PSA 10
STEAL
under $1,700
Under every September sale
TARGET
$1,700 – $2,000
Where September cleared: $1,950 middle on five sales
FAIR
$2,000 – $2,300
One step above the month; the run has printed a new high every month
STRETCHED
$2,300 – $3,000
The listings. Nobody has paid it
WALK AWAY
over $3,000
Numbered-parallel money for an unnumbered card
PSA 9
Targetunder $400
Fair$400 – $500
Walk awayover $600
6 sales this month, $265 to $550. A 9 is a quarter of the 10 and $130 over raw; the right buy if you want the rookie slabbed without paying for centering.
RAW
Targetunder $280
Fair$280 – $350
Walk awayover $400
13 sales this month, $170 to $400, middle $310. Raw is a 39% shot at $1,950; buy the best-centred copy you can see, not the cheapest, because the grade is decided by the borders. Check it is the Refractor, not the base, the Lazer or the RayWave.
Every angle

The Case For and Against

FOR
Up every month of the year at every grade: raw $72 to $310, PSA 10 $600 to $1,950, on rising volume
The true rookie of the driver the hobby just paid $360,510 for a parallel of; the base Refractor is the version people can own
A $1,510 step from 9 to 10 on a 39% gem rate: a well-centred raw copy is worth sending
Liquid: a raw every other day, a 9 every four days, a 10 every six, and the listings on the 9 and raw are at the market
AGAINST
An unnumbered Refractor from a product still being opened: 322 graded in nine months and the 10 column grows every week
Priced at twice Hamilton's anchor card after one and a half seasons; the price is the driver's future, not his record
A 38% gem rate on centering. Six in ten submissions come back a 9 or worse
The listings on the 10 are $1,000 over the market, and three cheaper Refractors (Lazer, RayWave, base) get titled as this one
THE VERDICT

Holding a raw copy? Grade it if the centering is clean, and know it is a 38% bet. A 10 is $1,950, a 9 still returns $440 over the $310 you hold, and the price has risen every month; the only loss is an off-centre 8. Holding a 10? Hold. A rookie card rising on volume with a six-figure parallel behind it is not a card to sell in September; take profit only if you hold several. Buying a 10? $1,700 to $2,000 by bidding; the listings are a headline, not a price. Buying a 9? Under $400, as the value way in. Buying raw? Under $280, centred, and confirm it says Refractor and nothing else.

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FUTUREPSAGRADER RESEARCH · Data through Sep 21, 2026 · Not financial advice.